21 Square

Boo'd?

This just in.  Through the magic of youtube here is a clip from the Collie Buddz concert of the reaction to Premier Brown on stage. 

 

Holiday envy

"Holidays have become the new Rolex or Porsche, a status symbol used to impress friends, family and colleagues." said Paul Birkhead, senior manager of underwriting for Halifax Travel Insurance, who was quoted in a new article in the Guardian.

According to the article,

Holiday envy is alive and well ... with 12% admitting to being jealous of the places their friends visit, 8% of the meals they consume and 6% of the cars they drive.

Does this add more evidence as to why Bermuda should be an aiming to become an exclusive brand name with regards to tourism as I've written about previously in "Where there is no Starbucks", "The Louis Vuitton of Tourism" and "Qualitative or quantitative"?

Bermuda simply doesn't garner much envy when cruise visitors get a better deal than those air visitors who pay a lot more.

Collie Buddz is bigger than Ewart

It is sometimes surprising that people forget that Bermuda is the equivalent of a small town, especially our Premier.  Collie Buddz is better known internationally than our Premier.  He isn't just a Bermudian sensation, he's becoming an international sensation with his name and his music being known all over.  The Premier's apparent attempt to jump on his bandwagon by doing a cameo at his show isn't anything that will garner support from the youth.  That kind of publicity works for Presidents who preside over hundreds of millions, but in a small town of 65000 you'd be more likely to see the local mayor buying a ticket and walking around amongst the people enjoying the concert sans bodyguards.

If the Premier wants to garner support from the youth, cameos are not where it's at.  He would have gotten an incredible amount of support had he simply bought a ticket and wandered around, even with a bodyguard.  People would have been talking for days.  "Did you know the Premier like's Collie Buddz?"  "Ya, I saw him walkin around at de concert, people wouldn't even leave him alone to enjoy de show".  Instead, what we're probably going to hear for the next week is "Can you believe the Premier tried to ruin the Collie Buddz concert?"  "What was with the t-shirt?"

That little stunt may well have killed the youth vote.  I just wish Collie Buddz hadn't said "fuck politics".  Just because we've got a poor load of politicians today doesn't mean we shouldn't care about the future we'll soon inherit because for all the Bermudians who don't make it big, it's all we have to look forward to.

e-Government without the e

What exactly is the point of touting the greatness of e-Government if the government web portal is horribly outdated?

This is a question I asked myself as I passed a poster on the wall at Blackhorse tavern advertising bus service running until 8:45pm for St. David's beginning in July 2006.  This seems coincidental as I've been complaining about the lack of reasonable evening bus service to St. David's recently only to discover that the issue isn't the bus service at all, it's my source of information:  the e-Government portal.

Taking a look at the e-Government page for Route 6 to St. David's it clearly showcases services stopping at approximately 6:30pm.

So, given that according to the poster the new changes to route #6 began back in July of 2006, what does that say about the e-Government portal in terms of being a reliable source of information?

Collie Buddz doesn't like your politics either

Just under a couple weeks ago the admin on the Progressive Minds blog bashed the UBP's young united group for having attempted to claim some credit in helping to arrange a local Collie Buddz concert.

"That latest shameful attempt to campaign by the UBP (hop on the back of a Reggae Artist name Collie Buddz) has backfired in such a grand way. Seems that Mr. Colin Harper isn't a fan of those Haterz over there in MilkWorld..."

So how funny is it that Premier Brown turned around to apparently make an appearance at the Collie Buddz concert to the sound of booing.  Did this shameful attempt to campaign by the PLP backfire in such a way that Collie Buddz was able to spin it against the PLP and the shameful nature of Bermuda politics in general?

The sweet sound of silence

Ah the weekend.  The chirping of birds, the sounds of leaves rustling in the wind and the gradual revving of engines up and down as bikes race around the track over at Clearwater. 

Continuing my quest to find solutions to the issues of living in St. David's brings me to those beloved racing bikes that disturb the tranquil peacefulness of the East End each weekend and the oft evening. 

Could such issues be solved in a similar way to how foreign cities have addressed the issues of highway noise through the installation of sound barriers? 

St. David's evening express

On Tuesday I wrote about a few of the issues St. David's has had to deal with.  Among them I voiced frustration with how St. David's has been handled both in recent years as well as the more distant past.  Even the Premier agrees that St. David's won't be an easy win which is primarily due to the fact that our needs haven't been satisfied.  As I don't wish to be someone who only complains and offer's no solutions, I've decided to elaborate on what could be done to make things better.

One of the things I mentioned is that bus service is inadequate.  While we have morning express runs, we're short on reasonable evening options.  Could the #3 route be extended later in the evening to match it's morning service so that St. David's gets better evening service?

Over the last couple days I've had the opportunity to catch the bus into town in the morning and get more familiar with St. David's bus service.  

From the two experiences I had,  St. David's has respectable morning service.  At 6:40am and 7:40am, the morning two routes terminate in Hamilton as they inherit the service along the number 3 line and run out to Bermudiana road.   My two experiences were on the 6:40am run which was full enough to fill the seats but not so full as anyone was left without one.  It is a quiet and somewhat pleasant ride where I've had the opportunity to get in some reading on the ride to work and still managed to turn up for an early morning meeting with time to spare.

While the I enjoyed the morning service, I was unable to find an evening service that meets my needs.  The only evening service that I found was on Route 11, Hamilton - St. Georges which offered a 5:25pm to St. David's.  Seeing as I usually work until at least 5:30pm, this proved inadequate.

What makes this especially inadequate is that the last run into  St. David's is at about 6:30pm or thereabouts for all routes.  This means that if you don't catch a 5:30pm bus, it is likely you'll be stuck at the number 1 gate.  So if you're like me and you regularly work till about 5:30pm, you're pretty much stuck without service to St. David's, as it's near impossible to leave work and get to a bus on time.

It doesn't make a great deal of sense to offer a morning express via the #3 route while not offering it in the evening.  Could the #3 route be extended to run leaving Hamilton at 5:45pm and 6:45pm to run direct to St. David's?  This would result in better evening service to St. David's and a better option for those who arrive at number one gate too late to catch the last route #6 service to St. David's.

Why we need young politicians

Onion, of the New Onion blog writes:

"When I see 20 year old candidates, twentysomething Senators who live with their parents… it makes me go “hmm - how, exactly are they supposed to understand life?” (not to mention “how are they representing labour when they have never worked to support themselves?”)"

Personally I fail to see how 60+ year olds, generations removed, can understand what the life of a 20 year old today is like and this is why I believe we should have more young representatives.  Despite their lack of wisdom and experience, what young people do bring to the table is a different perspective, one significantly lacking in people who are more 'set in their ways', often the old ways.

In Bermuda, unless you come from a privelidged background, it is entirely unrealistic to live in a $3000 a month studio apartment and expect to get ahead in Bermuda. It comes at little surprise to me that many youth are forced to live at home up to later ages, especially aspiring politicians.

"There are no 30 year old Statesmen for a good reason. "

Incorrect, many great politicians halved started young and kept going. There have been many successful young politicians who became great statesmen.

John Fitzgerald Kennedy happened to became a member of the U.S. House of Representatives at the age of 30.  William Pitt the Younger became Prime Minister of Britain at the age of 24.  According to USA today, as of 2004 there were more than 800 politicians from city council up to Congress under the age of 35

Of the 20 most recent American presidents, 12 won their first elected office before age 35.  Notably, Theodore Roosevelt was 24 when he won a New York State Assembly seat. Former President Bill Clinton was Arkansas attorney general at 30.

Young politicians think further into the future. They look ahead 20 or 50 years because they will still be alive then, it is their future they are planning for and are more concerned with the long term picture than simply the next election like many older politicians.

"That is at least one major reason why I won’t consider running in an election and also publish this blog generally anonymously - it’s going to be years before I can be sure that I have the integrity and experience necessary to be the most effective I can be in a world of conflicting opinions, different viewpoints, personality conflicts, and a generally shared long-term aim to do the best for Bermuda (with notable exceptions)."

Nothing personal Onion, but integrity is not speaking while hiding behind the curtain. Integrity is standing in front of the crowd willing to speak for and stand behind what you believe in. Experience is learning from the mistakes you make along the way.

Oscar Wilde may have once said it best "I'm not young enough to know everything".  Allow me to continue his words by suggesting that we should not let the ignorance of our youth be a deterrent to changing our island for the better for we're still young enough to believe that we can always do better.

If anything, we don't have enough politicians under the age of 30.

Tourism numbers

While I'm encouraged by the article in the paper regarding hotel occupancy rates, I'm still waiting on the numbers to be posted on the gov.bm website so I can gain a better picture of where things are.  Hopefully they're coming soon.

No respect left for Progressive Minds

I've written before about the fact that the Progressive Minds blog has begun showing signs of significant bias.  Despite their rules being stated as follows, I've noted that my posts are moderated and were often rejected though I only strived to make valid well thought out conversation points and did not violate any of their stated rules.

Blog Rules

The purpose of this site is to promote critical thinking, constructive dialogue and progressive solutions on issues which affect Bermuda and Bermudians. To accomplish this we encourage
1. The use of repsectful language
2. Respect for individuals, particularly blog members and members of the community

We will not tolerate:
1. Name calling
2. Profanity
3. Racial slurs
4. Personal attacks

Failure to comply may result in your removal from this blog.

Progressive minds blogger Vanz Chapman however has become notorious among the progressive minds blog readers I speak to as someone who can post unmoderated comments and often makes very racist, offensive and rediculous remarks such as "Why has limey and his cracker brigade infected the PLP blog" in June (though later modified to remove the work cracker) and now the following:

"something that most bdans have come to expect from the RG. but go ahead, do your thing. but considering that christian "hitler" dunleavy writes for the RG and who's whole body of work both for his site and the RG seems to be one long angry white guy rant about how much he hates the bulk of black bda"  (emphasis added)

If that doesn't classify as name calling, a personal attack and quite possibly a racial slur than I really don't know what does.

I have officially lost all respect for the youth wing of the PLP and by that regard I have lost respect for the PLP itself for allowing such hypocrisy to occur.

Color distinguished

"Psychologists Claude Steele and Joshua Aronson created an even more extreme version of this test, using black college students and twenty questions taken from the Graduate Record Examination, the standardized test used for entry into graduate school.  When the students were asked to identify their race on a pretest questionnaire, that simple act was sufficient to prime them with all the negative stereotypes associated with African Americans and academic achievement -- and the number of items they got right was cut in half"

After having thoroughly enjoyed reading The Tipping Point by Malcolm Gladwell, I thought I'd give a try to his latest book, blink. 

The above quote is an excerpt from his book identifying one of many examples of how subconscious cues can cause us to change our way of thinking.  The simple act of making subjects identify their race caused their test results to plummet to half of those who were not asked to identify their race.

Having previously read studies on the impact of race identification, I wasn't terribly surprised by the above quote, though no doubt quite a few people would be.  It is terribly unfortunate that there is such a negative connotation behind being black in today's society but what is more unfortunate is that there is very little we can do to change this stigma in the short term.  I've written in the past about Bruce Gordon's accountability ladder, under which a guiding principal is that the only true way to be empowered is to "make it happen" and not rely on reasons why you can't as a means not to.

One of my greatest concerns about today's Bermuda is that we spend a great deal of time and energy doing exactly what that test above outlines.  We quote statistics to say there are less blacks in management as evidence of racism and because you're black, you're less likely to get a job.  What impact does this have on positive attitudes towards achievement?

Gov.bm not working?

Gov.bm is opening ridiculously slow.  Actually, slow would be an understatement.  It is quite abysmal, I've tried opening it numerous times with no success. 

It's been months that the site has been running slowly.  Something should have been done about this quite some time ago.

Update:  I finally got a response

-------------

Server Application Unavailable

The web application you are attempting to access on this web server is currently unavailable.  Please hit the "Refresh" button in your web browser to retry your request.

Administrator Note: An error message detailing the cause of this specific request failure can be found in the application event log of the web server. Please review this log entry to discover what caused this error to occur.

 

Another update:

Gov.bm site is now back up and responding at a much more reasonable pace

Constituency #3

St. David's has gotten a pretty raw deal in recent years. 

• We were originally the site chosen for the Airport and US Base, of which land was appropriated from St. David's islanders so that it could be achieved. 
• We may have had Agent Orange dumped sometime in the past. 
• We constantly have to listen to airplanes take off and land
• Since the base's closure, we've become home to an unsightly and under-maintained boat yard that we have to pass every day that tarnishes the beauty of the east end.
• Much of the old US base property has been allowed to become derelict and makes the area appear more run down.
• Taxi service is abysmal
• There is inadequate and poor lighting along the roads
• We have to spend most evenings and weekends of a good part of the year listening to bikes race over by clearwater
• St. David's cricket club has become the host of concerts that play music so loud that there is no need for St. David's islanders to buy tickets, let alone hope to sleep.

If the PLP really hopes to win 30 seats and have constituency #3 as one of them they'd better tell me what they're going to do to about these issues.

Update:  I forgot to mention another one, no bus service after 6:30 pm

Refused due to overdevelopment

For anyone who contends that our housing crisis is a simple case of supply and demand, you are unfortunately quite wrong.  While supply and demand play a factor in our housing crisis, so does legislation.  Especially as we have put heavy restraints on who can build what and where.  That is of course if you're not the government, because if you were, the rules wouldn't apply to you.

So here we play witness to both a housing crisis and a shortage of affordable retail space and the top priority on the agenda is to build new hotels.  Of course, resurrecting our tourism industry is important so we don't rely on a one pony economy, but is it more important than affordable housing and living for Bermudians?

Price caps are not the answer

Over on progressiveminds.bm a discussion has arisen over the concerns of continually rising cost of living and housing.  One solution that is suggested is that price caps should be considered.  I would like to contest that price caps are not the answer.  What we truly should be doing is ensuring that we can better manage our growth and not allow it to spiral out of control simply so we can say we have a booming economy.

I've written in the past about the concept of a Soft Close, one where we'd limit new business as we attempt to deal with our growing pains.  Part of this effort should be to do more to make it easier for businesses to reduce their on island presence.  One major factor in this is that telecommunications on this island to the outside world are pretty abysmal.  Anyone who works in IT and international business would understand that the combination of our high latency and poor bandwidth makes it incredibly difficult to conduct business between global offices and Bermuda.  These issues serve as a major impediment to the ability of offices to reduce their on island presence of unnecessary workers.

I've also written numerous times on the concept of "less is more" when it comes to tourism.  It simply does not make sense to be building more and more hotels to bring in more foreign workers to be employed in them.  It also doesn't make sense to bring in more and more cruise ships so that we can further stress our infrastructure.

We need a leadership who will focus on fixing the fundamental problems long before rushing into new developments.

UBP catering to the Taxi industry, not the electorate

The UBP's pledges to the taxi industry are intriguing to say the least.  By no means do I think that the taxi industry shouldn't get it's fair shake, but I hold little support for an industry who, as a whole, offers terrible service to my constituency.

It is bad enough that many taxi drivers balk at me when I tell them I'd like a ride to St. David's, let alone the costs of nearly $30 or more to catch a taxi home after a night in town.  The prospect of a 5% increase, a review of "shared rides" and premium rates for late night hours just make it worse.

Where are the changes to the taxi industry that benefit the electorate?  I'm tired of having to call up a taxi company and give directions on where to go.  I've been to places like Toronto and London and taxi drivers there either know the city inside and out or they count on "real" GPS solutions.  It is absolutely ridiculous that one should have to give directions on a 21 square mile island.  I'm also tired of being told that I can't be served because I live way out in the country, which here in Bermuda is not all that far.

What guarantees will the UBP give the people that the taxi service will improve?  Will they commit to doing random spot checks to ensure that taxi's do pickups within a reasonable amount of time and serve all destinations?  Will there be fines and penalties implemented for those who refuse service?

According to the article in the Bermuda Sun: 

The "range of measures" that the Opposition UBP says it will bring in if elected comes two months after Mr. Dunkley held an open meeting with taxi drivers and a day after the Bermuda Sun reported that disgruntled taxi drivers are vowing not to drive PLP supporters to polling stations to vote as they did in the 1998 election.

This sounds allot like the UBP is pandering to the disgruntled taxi drivers to buy votes at a convenient time without providing a well thought out plan that will also assist the electorate.  Is it becomming increasingly apparent that it's election season and suddenly politicians are waking up to realize they need to serve the voting community?

Mr. Dunkley, what will you be doing for St. David's islanders and the rest of the electorate who are fed up with poor service?

No class or professionalism.

Jamahl Simmons displays no class or professionalism in his switch back into the PLP.   Months ago when he left the UBP he launched scathing attacks and criticism on the party claiming that racism is the reasoning for why Erwin Adderley was chosen over him for his Pembroke West branch.  As I don't recall him ever naming names many of the attacks came off as personal and unsubstantiated, though they could not be dismissed easily as there may have been truth to his words.

So now after a few months of being an independent he has spun around the rejoin the PLP all while launching scathing personal attacks on UBP chairman Shawn Crockwell.  Noone could claim Shawn Crockwell as perfect, however one should recognize that having paid his debt to society and worked hard to find means to rise above his faults to become an upstanding member of his society, he deserves respect without the resurrection of his past every time someone wants to take a cheap shot.  Apparently it is Jamahl's implication that all criminals are forever guilty regardless of the time they spend in jail.  If that's the case than perhaps he should take a look at the party he's joining, for clearly it is not without it's own rehabilitated individuals who deserve that same respect.

The only thing Jamahl's latest attacks bring into question is the validity of his claims with regards to the UBP.  What he has done is made it ever more clear that he is more interested in personal vendettas than setting things right.  If Shawn Crockwell had truly proclaimed him lazy than the best rebuttal would have been to prove him wrong through action, not petty retorts lacking real substance.

Subprime fallout.

Will the fallout of subprime loans be the catalyst to push the United States economy into a recession in the coming months?

As my interest in studying the markets grow, I've taken to writing a little bit more about my limited understanding of them.

One of the theories I'm following is what impact the fallout of subprime mortgages will have on the overall markets.  It suggests that in a lending boom, banks run out of people to lend to due to low interest rates encouraging a large number of people to buy, so they start giving out subprime mortgage loans.  Due to the lower interest rates, variable rate mortgages are attractive because they are offered at a much lower rate than fixed.  What the common individual with poor credit and limited financial knowledge doesn't account for, however, is that variable rate mortgages reset after two years and the interest rates can rise considerably in that time, as they have in the last couple years. 

Above is a chart garnered from a blog called At These Levels, though modified to indicate present standing in July.  What the above chart indicates is the amount, in billions, of resets of varying types of adjustable rate mortgages.

What is important to understand is that when someone with bad credit and limited financial understanding is given a loan (often when they cannot actually afford it), they may stretch their budget further than they will be able to manage when their rates reset.  So, now that interest rates are much higher and resets are occurring, people are suddenly watching as their low mortgage payments turn into high ones.  This can cause strain and for many is unsustainable, so people start dumping their homes on the markets in order to recover any possible value prior to being foreclosed on.

People begin missing their payments as they try to sell their homes.  Being as interest rates are higher, it becomes harder to sell homes and thus supply quickly outstretches demand and the inventory of unsold homes begins to rise.

 

Graphic  courtesy of WSJ online

The money to fund these loans comes from banks who acquire the money through selling bonds or bond based funds.

So, you buy a bond (guaranteed specific investment return) and the bank turns around and uses that money to give out subprime loans.

Many resets happen do to interest rate increases.  People with bad credit who are living paycheck to paycheck are now stretched and can't meet their payments.  Mass sales of homes begin to happen as people try to beat foreclosures.  Housing bubble bursts (as it has been doing) and the banks start foreclosing.  Banks can't sell homes at previous value to recover and end up with losses as they are in the banking business, not the housing business.

Assets listed by banks in the form of mortgages given out on the basis of securing bond based portfolios begin to look overpriced because homes no longer carry the value they once did and many are being forced to foreclose.  This causes the banks to then have to revalue the assets of the funds they offer which causes them to be revalued for lower than they were previously reported.   This results of this revaluation is said to be coming for the 3rd quarter in September.

If the revaluations are bad enough, investors then lose confidence in the markets and start dumping their stocks in hopes of taking profits from the recent bull markets.  What happens when investors flood stocks on the market?  Over supply, less demand.  We then find ourselves in a situation where we're either approaching a major correction in the markets or the beginning of a recession as the combination of the poorer segments of the economy are now budget stretched and the higher segments lose a fair bit of their gains in the markets, people flee to safer investments as overall spending in the economy grinds to a halt.

Of course, I really know very little about the markets and these are just ideas formulated on a very basic understanding so I'd welcome input from those out there who are a bit more knowledgeable than I.  Looking back on it now, I wish I'd taken economics as my first year elective in university as opposed to psychology.

10% extra, same great price

Christian Dunleavey over at Politics.bm has a really great quote when it comes to blogging and how timid our local media is at asking hard questions and getting real answers.

Thaao may be playing a character, but I'm not. I don't make money from this, I have no corporate boss to tell me what to do, and no advertisers to please. I say what I say because it needs to be said, and our timid media is missing a huge swath of political coverage, may the chips fall where they may.

The issues I write about (accountability, racial tolerance, good governance, modernizing Parliament) are ones that are fundamental to a properly functioning democracy. I make no apologies for that, whether Thaao thinks it's sincere or not.

Well said.

Bruce Gordon's accountability ladder

Through the magic of youtube I got to watching a number of clips of this years American State of the Black Union from back in February.  One particularly compelling clip was that of Bruce Gordon, former President and CEO of the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People (NAACP), as he described the distinction between personality led organizations and process led organizations and their inherent success.

His words on this speak for themselves and are a key indication of the predicament we find ourselves within in our own country.  We rely far too heavily on personality led politics when we should be striving for process and proper planning.

One other thing I picked up on from this clip was in the comments where there was a plea for a link to his other comments regarding an accountability ladder.  Though I've been unable to find a copy of the video, I was able to find a breakdown of this concept recorded on a blog post:

Bruce Gordon, President of the NAACP and a true Black leader, elaborated on what he called an “accountability ladder.” Dr. Gordon described the ladder as an eight rung progression of accountability. The lower four rungs are where those with a “victim mentality” reside; the top four are occupied by “Accountable” or “Empowered” people.

-Victim Mentality-

8. Unconscious/unaware of their situation or problem.

7. Blaming others for their current state.

6. Can’t do anything about it, so why try?

5. Wait and hope the problem is taken care by itself or others.

-Accountable People-

4. “I messed up.” (Admit mistakes)

3. Find a solution.

2. Ask for help, but be willing to go it alone.

1. Make it happen.

From a young age my father used to tell me, "the only person who can stop you from achieving what you truly want is yourself".  For a man who went from being a poor St. David's bye that people laughed at for proclaiming he'd become a pilot to one who is recognized by the United Nations as one of a handful of international experts in aviation, I am incredibly thankful to have been taught to live in the upper rungs of the accountability ladder.  I just wish there were more Bermudians willing to as well.

where there is no Starbucks

Stressed?  Need a vacation to get away from it all?  The busy life, the hectic streets, the so called rat race?  Come to the place where there is no Starbucks.  Take your next vacation in peaceful Bermuda.

Not too long ago I had an interesting thought.  Are we one of the only places in the world not penetrated by the Starbucks empire?  Starbucks, like McDonalds and other huge franchises seem everywhere, just not here in Bermuda.  In some ways Bermuda seems untouched from the rest of the world.  In others, we've bought into the flashy lifestyle, the expensive cars, the big screen TVs and the Louis Vuitton everywhere.  Bermuda still does hold some exclusivity and it is that which we should be doing our best to exploit to rebuild tourism.

A reader from the Caymans passed along an editorial in the Cayman net news asking the same questions of whether cruise is really worth it and if we should be taking a less is more approach to tourism.

From the editorial:

the [Cayman] government’s latest master plan to solve the imbalance in the tourism sector between relative numbers of stay-over and cruise visitors, as well as the high cost of getting and staying here, is to target high net worth individuals – to be the destination of choice for the rich and famous.

That concept may have worked when we were “the islands that time forgot”, and we had a distinctive quality that set us apart from our competitors.

However, time remembered us with a vengeance and within the space of a few short years brought us the fast-food franchises, hotel chains, and unbridled development that have gone a long way towards submerging our once unique identity in the concrete and traffic that anyone can experience in a zillion other places in the world.

Sounds a bit like Bermuda.  We're lucky to have put a stop to fast food franchises years ago, but we do suffer from unbridled development in the form of Special Development Order after Special Development Order, with more to come.  Do you even need to be reminded about our traffic woes?  Solutions to which I've written on numerous occasions such as dedicated school buses, taxi-buses, rush-hour sensitive congestion taxes and car sharing.  

For years, the Cayman Islands seemed to have a unique formula for tourism success, targeting a very specific niche market that made up for its lack of volume with its disposable vacation income and generous spending habits.

They must have stolen this formula from old Bermuda for isn't it what made Bermuda tourism a success? 

Cayman’s tourism formula was to attract a certain type of guest — and our visitors were made to feel more like guests back then — who did not mind paying a premium price for a Caribbean destination that offered safety, convenience and friendly hosts in a laid-back, uncrowded environment.

The visitors who were attracted to this kind of tourism product were usually high-earning professionals who primarily wanted to get away from their hectic lifestyles. These people didn’t really mind that there were not dozens of attractions to see, and in fact liked the fact that the Cayman Islands did not have the typical “tourist traps” of many other Caribbean destinations.

Does this sound remarkably like what I've been advocating for Bermuda to resurrect tourism?

To return to our headline question, is it too late – have we killed the goose that laid the golden stay-over tourism egg? Clearly, it’s impossible to turn back the clock and undo all the ill-considered development, so we are stuck now in the unenviable position of being a mini-Miami Beach, that’s much more expensive to stay in and to get to than the real thing.

For Bermuda it isn't too late just yet.  Put an end to the SDO's.  Improve what we have now.  Slow down.  Get rid of cruise ships.  Take a less is more approach.  Bring back EXCLUSIVITY!

Do we therefore continue the logical progression and try to turn ourselves into the next Paradise Island, with casinos and mass tourism? And what of the divers from all lifestyles that came back to the Cayman Islands year after year after year?

We already are an island paradise.  We've got some of the best diving in the world.  Some of most beautiful golf courses and one of the best beaches in the world.  We've got the location.  We've got the infrastructure.  We've got the resources. 

It may be too late for the Caymans, but it isn't too late for Bermuda.

Calling for a soft close

Bermuda's economy is in big trouble.  Does that make sense?   Bermuda's economy is booming.  Government revenue is up, tourism is up, and jobs are up.  Our GDP per capita rating is unmatched in the world.  So what's wrong? 

It's great to know our economy is booming, however the question arises of what happens when that growth is too fast?  What happens when inflation spirals out of control, when "affordable housing" isn't affordable, affordable rentals are impossible to find and our infrastructure is stretched.  What happens when traffic gets worse and worse and we are hard pressed to keep control of the growth we have?  Is our booming economy as great then?

If our present growth is unsustainable and a stretch on our infrastructure, is it a good idea to let 82 more companies incorporate on the island this year like we did last?   According to the Department of Statistics latest job market report, there were 553 more non-Bermudian positions created in 2006 than in 2005.  That's 553 more people coming to our island, filling our homes, driving on our roads, consuming our electricity and contributing to our waste.  While we do appreciate the contributions of our guest workers, at some point we do need to realize that too much growth is just not good for business, nor is it good for Bermudians.

In the world of finance there is a concept referred to as a "soft close".  A soft close essentially means that you close to new business temporarily while you take the necessary measures to manage your present growth and better prepare your infrastructure to handle future growth for when you reopen.   A soft close for Bermuda would mean that Bermuda would no longer take on any new exempt company incorporations and would work with existing exempt companies to figure out ways to reduce the numbers of non-Bermudians required on island.  A less is more style approach.

In the interests of getting a better handle on our growth, would a soft close be a good option for Bermuda and it's people?  Would it give us the ability to address our housing crisis?  Would it give us time to rethink our infrastructure and how it operates so that we can find a way to get more for less?  If we truly hope for a sustainable future for Bermudians, should we seriously be considering the possibility of closing to new business while we focus on ensuring we can manage the growth we have now.

Empty promises no longer

In 1998 the PLP promised to update our antiquated corruption laws.  Some 9 years and a few scandals later, that promise has gone unfulfilled.  In 2003, the UBP also promised to update our antiquated corruption laws.  For 30 years they never deemed it necessary and only believed so when the PLP got into power. 

As Lord Acton once said, absolute power corrupts absolutely.  What is clear of these past decades is that neither party is able to withstand the draw of power and the belief that they can somehow be absolved of corruption.  They will promise to end and prevent corruption only amongst their foes for they themselves are righteous and without fault.

Here we find ourselves approaching another election and once again our people will hear empty promises from both parties of fixing our corruption laws.  Regardless of what occurred in the past, the greatest tragedy is that Bermudians may well be deceived again because we will sooner divide against one another one party lines before we will unify to demand what is right.

Regardless of who you intend or don't intend to support this election, every Bermudian should be demanding today that we see the necessary changes to our corruption laws to ensure that no government is again allowed to take advantage of our people. 

We need to stand together to demand that our government fixes our corruption laws before the next election.

Pot calling the kettle black?

Ask any heavy PLP supporter about the BHC allegations and they'll use the old, "but they were exonerated".  Investigations were carried out, noone was arrested and the best that people could come up with was that no illegal crime was committed.  Of course, some actions could be deemed unethical and due to our antiquated laws, they could have been deemed illegal, but weren't.  So that's it. Wipe your hands, sweep it under the rug, clear your mind.  Forget that BHC ever happened.  It wasn't illegal, unethical maybe, but that doesn't matter.  Only things that are illegal are worth pursuing.  Only things that are illegal deserve admissions of guilt.  Only things that are illegal deserve reparations.  There's no need to update our laws to make these things illegal now because they weren't illegal before.

This is where I draw the very striking line between BHC and another "not illegal, but unethical" practice.  Go back and reread the above paragraph replacing PLP with UBP and BHC with Slavery.

It wasn't illegal, only unethical.  Does that make it right?

Qualitative or Quantitative?

Oscuro Branson, a Progressive Minds blogger, has taken a few moments to comment on my concept of "less is more" when it comes to improving Bermuda tourism.  Rather than respond in the comments of his blog, I've chosen to respond here for I've found that my comments are sometimes filtered out despite adhering to the stated BLOG RULES.

In brief review, what is the less is more concept?  Very basically, due to our limited space, resource and capacity constraints, I believe that we should be striving for less tourists who spend more money.  In short, quality over quantity. 

It may seem counterintuitive, why would we want to turn away tourists?  The real issue comes when we examine how cruise visitors compare to air visitors.  At present, each air visitor spends approximately six times as much as each cruise visitor.  This means we need 6 times as many cruise visitors to match one air visitor.  The issue we have is that when you really get down to it, cruise visitors get more value for their money.  They're offered a better Bermuda vacation than air visitors and that is what truly is counterintuitive.

Take my 3 friends I have visiting the island this week.  Two are staying in a hotel at some $350 a night and one is staying with me at my place.  I decide to take them by a few of the sights on the island and show them a little about the island.  I take them by Tobacco bay because it is one of the closer beaches to where I live and was always a childhood favorite of mine.  Unfortunately, the cruise ship being in means that the beach is so packed that there is barely room to lay down a towel let alone walk to the water.  I felt ashamed that I'd even shown them the beach because it was clear that we'd stuffed it so full of cruise visitors that the chances for my friends to relax and enjoy the beach that I love were slim. 

I decide to show them the nightlife and subsequently take them out to the Pink Party at some $50 a ticket that was on at Snorkel Park on Saturday.  When it came time that they'd had enough and wanted to leave, we went out to catch a taxi back to Hamilton, only there were none.  We called a taxi company and ordered one.  More waiting, still nothing.  We decided we'd try walking out a ways to see if one were to come that we could pick it up before the many other people waiting.  Still nothing.  Of about an hours waiting, not one taxi came through.  Again, I was ashamed that my friends were being shown a poor time for their money and there was little I could do about it.

My friends decided to go out to lunch and later told me about it.  Unfortunately the restaurant was so packed that service was terrible.  While the waiter was friendly, food took over an hour to arrive and my friends were starving.  When I was told this, again I was ashamed that we had packed our restaurants so full with cruise visitors that my high paying friends couldn't get reasonable service.

Then I think of the stories I hear from tourists at guest houses and hotels.  Ones where they've waited an hour or more for taxis that don't show up.  If you were to go to where the cruise ships are, the taxi's line up in wait to serve cruise visitors.  Then you can talk to those air visitors who'd like to go out on a catamaran cruise, rent some jetskis, or swim with the dolphins and again I hear that often times they show up and there is no availability.  "We're sorry, we've already guaranteed all our spots to the cruise ship".  In the times that I am told these stores I am ashamed at the quality of our tourism product.  Especially considering that these people are spending hundreds a night in a hotel while cruise visitors get priority.

The very crux of the problem is that we are not a volume based destination.  We're a tiny island of limited resources.  We don't have a great number of taxis, we don't have a great number of restaurants and we don't have 100 mile long beaches.  When we let cruise passengers come in and run the show, the quality of vacation for our air visitors suffer.  Air visitors who are contributing 6 times more money to our economy are treated with second class service to cruise passengers.   Why do we do this?  Where is the benefit when the increase in air visitors from 2006 over 2005 alone nearly equaled the amount of money that cruise visitors spent in 2005.

It may be a hard concept to understand, but less really is more when it comes to Bermuda tourism.  By offering more exclusivity and better quality of service, we would be free to increase our prices.  Air visitors would be willing to spend more money for a visit to Bermuda if it was more exclusive.  That is if they were guaranteed quiet and unpacked beaches.  If they got quick and reliable service from taxis, activities and restaurants.  If they got a high quality vacation overall that you just cannot attain anywhere but in Bermuda.  Air visitors shouldn't have to compete with cruise in these regards.  There are a great many destinations who cater to tourists en mass.  We should be the destination where you get what you pay for. 

"Oh, we don't serve St. David's"

For us St. David's folk, we're not important enough to deserve decent service when it comes to transportation.  Try taking a bus outside daytime hours and you'll quickly find that they stop at about 6pm.  Try taking a taxi, and they'll tell you they'll send one.  Two to three calls later and they tell you that they called a taxi in St. Georges who refuses to go to St. David's.

I have lost all respect for taxi drivers.  While some are friendly and nice, those who refuse a fare based upon discrimination against those who live in St. David's is ridiculous.  It happens far too often.

How America counts graduation rates

A reader wrote in the following summary of how American graduation rates are calculated.  Interestingly they seem to be in direct contrast to how Bermuda's new calculations are performed.

In 2005 governors of all 50 American states signed the Graduation Counts Compact and committed to a common method for calculating each state's high school graduation rate. In addition to agreeing to a common formula for calculating the graduation rate, the governors committed to leading efforts to improve state data collection, reporting, and analysis; reporting additional indicators of outcomes for students; and reporting annually on their progress toward improved high school graduation, completion, and dropout data. The governors undertook this commitment because they understand the imperative to gather more accurate, comparable data on how many of their students graduate from high school on time.

The States agreed to calculate the graduation rate by dividing the number of on-time graduates in a given year by the number of first-time entering ninth graders four years earlier. This is very different from the abbreviated accounting now used by Bermuda which shows a higher graduation rate.

The Graduation Counts Compact can be found here: http://www.nga.org/portal/site/nga/menuitem.9123e83a1f6786440ddcbeeb501010a0/?vgnextoid=f57c04493f5bc010VgnVCM1000001a01010aRCRD

Electric scooters alone won't solve the problem

The Royal Gazette has an interesting article on the island's oil reliance due to the heavy rise in inflation, something I touched on only weeks ago.

The article focuses on things we can do to reduce our reliance on oil with one mention being acquiring an electric scooter.  Unfortunately while purchasing an electric scooter seems like a great idea, it really accomplishes little as long as the electricity to power it still needs to come from Belco which burns diesel fuel to generate it.  It does however identify the need for other means to reduce our consumtion through the encouragement of and elimination of duty for solar water heaters and solar panels, as suggested by local environmental group Greenrock.

There are many other things that could be undertaken to reduce our overall carbon impact along with our oil consumption.  As one example, government could be banning the importation of incandescent light bulbs.  According to a lab test conducted by Popular Mechanics, Compact Florescent Light bulbs "use about 70 percent less electricity than incandescent bulbs."  Imagine what kind of impact such a ban would have on our overall electricity consumption.  Such bans have already taken place in Australia and California and is something I covered briefly back in February.

Individuals and even storeowners could be doing their part as well.  Each could also consider the acquisition of an eCube to reduce refrigerator consumption.  In a traditional refrigerator, whenever you open and close the fridge, the cool air in the fridge is released as warm air from the room rushes in.  This despite the fact that your items still such as your milk or beer still remain cold.  This is due to the temperature sensor in most fridges which measure air temperature as a means to decide when the fridge should be cooling or not.  When the door opens, the fridge thinks it needs to turn on and thus kicks in the condenser unit, often far more often than it truly should and especially in the case of stores.  The eCube acts to simulate the temperature of the stored products rather than the air around them and thus ensures that the fridge does not run unnecessarily and could serve as a great means to reduce refridgerator consumption.

Belco could be doing more of it's part as well.  The proposed underwater turbine is a good first step, but it's largely untested and unproven.  It also will only supply a small portion of the islands overall needs.  Another consideration would be to offer the ability for people with solar panels and other home oriented power sources to contribute excess electricity into the grid in times that their home consumption is low.

Belco could also be looking into other technologies besides the underwater turbine.  One thing that I'm keen on are algae bioreactors.  A company called GreenFuel technologies produces a bioreactor that works to extract carbon dioxide, a key contributor to global warming, from smokestacks and subsequently uses it to grow algae.  Algae can then be used to create biofuels such as biodiesel or hydrogen to power hydrogen fuel cells.  Rather than releasing carbon dioxide in the air from the Belco and Tynes bay smokestacks, we could be working with companies like GreenFuel to not only reduce our carbon impact but also produce fuel which can be used locally.  Further, we could be trying to invest in the development of algae (or seaweed) farming locally in order to boost our abilities to produce fuels locally and become more foreign oil independent. 

Another key step is that we could be looking to better utilize the ash created by the Tynes bay smokestacks.  Rather than sinking it into cement blocks, we could instead be using it as a fertilizer to improve our ability to create produce locally.  Ash when mixed with soil actually works as a great fertilizer and the ash produced from the incinerator could be investigated as a source.

There are a great many activities we could be undertaking to reduce our reliance on foreign oil and reduce our carbon footprint.  We simply need to start thinking out of the box and ensure that we have a government who is willing to put more emphasis on our future rather than only focusing on the past.

Cherry picking education numbers

So its not an "education crisis" as long as you don't count drop-outs?

The source said that the Ministry of Education previously measured the graduation rate by comparing the number of passes against a starting group of students, which included some who had moved from the Island, gone to other schools or dropped out of the system.

“We were so bad at calculating data before that I know the rate was deflated,” they said.

“Students were counted that were no longer in the system; students that had withdrawn or gone to other schools. We were never in the deepest of crises that we were led to believe.”

Thanks to an earlier post on the education numbers, I dug up an article (School statistics flaw corrected) from back in January that said:

Schools have now been equipped with the means to track where a student comes from when they enter the school system, and when they exit.

Recalculating the graduation rates without subsequently providing the details of how many dropped out is cherry picking the numbers so that you get the result you want rather than the real picture.

Give us a breakdown of

a. How many left the island and have not returned

b. How many transferred schools

c. How many dropped out.

A drop-out is a fail to graduate and reflects the education systems failure to educate and prepare young Bermudians.   It is absolutely critical that we know how many are dropping out.  A 50% drop out rate is just as critical as a 50% failure rate because it ultimately means that 50% of Bermudians are not being properly educated. 

The Louis Vuitton of tourism

It's no secret that Bermudians love Louis Vuitton.  Pay 10 times the price for a product of the same quality simply because of it's name and recognized brand.  Somehow buying someone else's name makes your own image seem more reputable.  As my father always tells me, "Son, you get what you pay for" and you can't argue with the fact that with Louis Vuitton what you're paying for is branding and exclusivity.

Compare Louis Vuitton's approach to the one we use for Bermuda tourism.  We're pandering to the lowest denominator in order to tout the highest "arrival" numbers while not paying attention to what really matters: $$$.  Cruise ships and discount tourists are our business as we think we can compete with the rest of the Caribbean in this market.  It's saddening.  Ask most Americans what they think of Bermuda and their likely response is "who?  Oh, you mean one of those Caribbean islands?", though we're not even in the Caribbean.  To the outside world and those who haven't witnessed the beauty of our tranquil waters and uniqueness of our architecture and culture, Bermuda is just another island.

The Bermuda I dream of is one that is like the Louis Vuitton of tourism.  I dream of Bermuda being a name so reputable and exclusive that when someone says they went to Bermuda on vacation, jaws drop open in disbelief and envy.  Bermuda should be prestigious, exclusive and the place where everyone wishes they could be and are willing to pay a premium to say they were here.

As I've said before, cruise ships are not the answer.  Cruise ships are like Louis Vuitton introducing a wal-mart line of products.  If Louis Vuitton carried a wal-mart line that anyone could buy, it would kill the exclusivity of the brand.  Cruise ships make Bermuda accessible to the "wal-mart" of tourists.   There is of course nothing wrong with the "wal-mart" class of tourists, only that they're further down the long tail.  Making money on the "wal-mart" class requires targeting large volumes for little profits.  This model works perfectly in large Caribbean destinations but on our tiny little island, we're easily strained.

Today most hotels are packed with foreign workers.  Why?  Because the profits are so slim that you can't pay people very well and thus the demands of the jobs are not attractive for Bermudians.  Our cost of living is already high enough.  If we were the Louis Vuitton of tourism, the exclusivity and quality of product offered would allow us to charge 10 times the price of other accessible destinations of similar quality.  Being the Louis Vuitton of tourism means we can greatly increase our profit margins while decreasing the overall numbers of tourists.  If our profit margins were larger, we could pay our people more.  If we attracted high rollers, it would be lucrative to work in the tourism industry rather than a struggle.  Bermudians would have options other than international business again.

Never count on Bermuda taxis

The lesson of the day:  never count on Bermuda taxis.  While drivers are typically friendly and nice but when you need one they're usually not there. 

Today my sister ordered a taxi for a flight she needed to catch.  Surprise, it never showed up.  Due to this inconvenience, I had to manage trying to fit her stuff on a bike so I could give her a ride in which is quite ridiculous.  What ever happened to the grand GPS scheme that was supposed to fix all our problems?  Years on and here we are, same problems, same unreliable service and hundreds of thousands spent on a system that did not work.

The case against cruise

Some people may see the loss of cruise ships in Hamilton next year as a bad thing.  Personally, I think it's great.  I believe cruise isn't worth the time or money we spend on it.

Courtesy of data compiled from the Caribbean Tourism Organization, Quarterly Bulletins of Statistics and yearly Bermuda Digest's of Statistics, here is a breakdown to support my case.

 

Here is a chart of Air vs. Cruise arrivals.   What you'll note is that while overall arrivals are up considerably since 1998, they are largely comprised of a heavy increase in cruise visitors over air visitors.  Cruise visitors attributing significantly more than they did in 1998 while air visitors still lagging 1998 numbers.

 

Here is a chart of average visitor expenditure.  What you'll note is that while the total average expenditure for both cruise and air visitors combined hovers around $1400, air visitors heavily outperform cruise by about 6 to 1.  

 

Each air visitor contributes 6 times as much to the local economy as each cruise visitor which is demonstrated by the next chart.  Note how most of the increase in expenditure came from air visitors and not cruise. 

 

Despite total arrivals being way up according to the first chart, some 75,000 more visitors in 2006 than there were in 1998, we actually earned $30 million less.

Does this suggest that we should be focusing all of our energy on maximizing the expenditure of air visitors?  Perhaps by improving the quality of their stay we could do without cruise visitors entirely?   Here's some food for thought.  Look at the total expenditure graph for 2006 and note how the air expenditure for 2006 matches the total expenditure for 2005.  That means if we'd had no cruise visitors in 2006 we still would have made just as much money as in 2005.

Less cruise means less people on our roads, our beaches, less garbage, less power consumed, and more for us and our air based tourists.  Should we be focusing 100% of our energy on ensuring a quality and prestigious vacation for air visitors in order to improve Bermuda tourism and forget about cruise all together? 

"Important Bermuda People"

I love the internet.

Apparently someone from Bulgaria visited my site after typing "Important Bermuda People" into google.

I checked and apparently my site is 79th on the search list returned for these keywords.

Too funny!

Something missing in education numbers

According to a recent gazette article suggesting an 82% graduation rate, which is far above last years 48%.

This year, there were 173 graduates out of 212 senior four students.

In 2006, 148 gained a Bermuda School Certificate out of 309 senior four students.

These numbers open up a whole host of questions because such a large one year increase is unfathomable.  The first which springs to mind is what is the dropout rate and how do the graduation rates reflect dropouts?  One should quickly note that there were 97 less students in this years total than there were last year.  How many dropped out?

What were the student to teacher ratios?  If there were 20 teachers overall in both years, that would mean student/teacher ratios of 15 students per teacher for last year and 11 this year.  If true, what would the extra attention garnered for each student say about the graduation rate?

What is the larger picture?  What calculations were used?  What are the base numbers?  Where are the rest of the stats?

Lets go back to an old gazette article published on January 26th of 2007 for reference:  School statistics flaw corrected

In previous years, said Mr. Horton, students who were not enrolled in the BSC programme were included in published graduation rates, giving an inaccurate set of results.

He said previous statistics were also less reliable because there were was no way of knowing whether students had left the school system before graduating privately in Bermuda or abroad; if they were institutionalized; or if they dropped out in the traditional sense of the word.

Schools have now been equipped with the means to track where a student comes from when they enter the school system, and when they exit.

"when they enter the school system, and when they exit."  Where are these numbers according to how many and why they entered or exited?  Where are the numbers for the Bermuda School Certificate (BSC) enrollment.  How many of our youth did and did not enroll?  What percentage?

Are the requirements of attaining the Bermuda School Certificate the same?  What were the test scores for graduates?

On November 6th, 2006, Bermuda Union of Teachers President Lisa Trott was quoted as follows

Ms Trott said a true graduation rate would show how many students began school in Senior One and how many left with a BSC from Senior Four.

She said: “We need to know the numbers in terms of retention and to see how many students are spending six years rather than four years at senior school level.

Where are these numbers?